A great opportunity for Nokia that no one has mentioned…

The news is full of reports on the abysmal second quarter results posted by Nokia today, which saw such a massive drop for the company that it has been surpassed by Apple in smartphone sales for the first time (16.7 million Nokias, compared to 20 million iPhones).

Some are suggesting that it’s a sign the move to Windows Phone 7 was the right one, but most analysis and opinion is that Nokia might not survive long enough at this rate, given that we’re only likely to see one WP7 handset by the end of the year, and although the operating system is a nice one, it might not be nice enough to make any impact into the growth of Android and iOS. For a full and complete analysis of how far Nokia have floated up the creek without any propulsion, Tomi Ahonen is as comprehensive as ever in his figures, predictions, and critical analysis of Microsoft and Nokia CEO Stephen Elop.

But I think I may have spotted a big opportunity for a core of growth for Nokia, and it’s all based around Windows Phone 7 and their relationship with Microsoft

Here’s where Nokia, Microsoft and Windows Phone 7 could nail it:

  • Microsoft posted record quarter profits for Q4 last year, and record annual profits of $69.94 billion.
  • The biggest growth has come from the Entertainment and Devices division, which includes Kinect, and the Xbox, which was picked out as contributing significantly to the record profits.
  • Whether you prefer WP7, Android or iOS, you can certainly see that WP7 is a good enough OS to on a par with the others, but the perception is that the huge app catalogues of Android and iOS and the continued increase in developers devoting time and effort to them make their leads pretty unassailable.

But here’s what I think would give Nokia, Microsoft and WP7 a significant core group of growth from which to build….

  • Xbox is growing and making significant revenue.
  • Kinect is a record-breaking success.
  • Integration with Xbox Live and gaming on mobiles has been mentioned by senior Microsoft staff for years, even before the Xbox 360 launched (One of the chief people involved in the Xbox project, J Allard, talked about it in-depth in an Edge magazine feature back in 2005).
  • The biggest selling entertainment product of last year, which broke records for all videogame sales, was Activion’s Call of Duty: Black Ops, which is currently time-exclusive for the Xbox, meaning all updates etc are released way earlier for the Microsoft Console.

Non-gamers may still be asking why this matters, but consider the fact that there is a huge group of Call of Duty gamers who have bought an Xbox purely to play Call of Duty. And these generally aren’t 15-year-olds – these are mainly late-20s and early-30s men (and some ladies) who also bought an iPhone when they became cool and fashionable because a guy at work showed them Angry Birds.

These are people with limited time, and limited interest in comparing operating systems, or app inventory. There are plenty of other great games on the Xbox, but they’ll possibly buy a football game (Fifa for English football, Madden for American football, or maybe a golf game, and that’s it. They’ve spent £200 for a console, £40 for a game, and £30 for additional content, plus a £40 annual Xbox Live subscription to play one game online with their friends.

 

  • Now most manufacturers using Windows Phone 7 also produce Android handsets which have a much, much higher rate of sale and adoption at the moment by a massive margin, so Nokia is in a position to be a massively preferential partner with Microsoft.
  • If Nokia hardware, which is still trusted by consumers, and Microsoft WP7 could be put to Activision in a way that gets exclusivity on the Call of Duty franchise for mobile in addition to the Xbox console, or if they’ve already set up the contract that it’s Xbox Live exclusivity regardless of device.
  • Suddenly you have hardware people still remember as trustworthy, even if Symbian was perceived as stone age compared to smartphone rivals. You have Xbox Live which is doing massively well as the established online videogame network, and you have the game which gets a large audience of adults with a disposable income in a position to spend £300 plus just to access that game. If they can figure out the right way to get CoD onto a mobile handset in a way which is enjoyable, ties into the console game as well (Most likely feeding into the new Call of Duty XP social network/stats package), then they’ve got a strong and solid core from which to build.

And given that the mobile/console interaction was being discussed 6 years ago, and increased Xbox Live connectivity is constantly being mentioned in every WP7 upgrade, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was announced pretty soon. Given the fact that one Nokia WP7 handset is out this year, and the next installment in the series, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 is due in early November, marketing for such a phone and app would have to begin pretty soon, but having work on a launch app for a previous Nokia handset, the turnaround times for actually producing something were relatively short in that case.

Now the one thing that would probably scare anyone inside of Nokia from the idea would be remembering the ill-fated N-Gage – the gaming/phone ‘sidetalking’ abomination which ranks as one of the most notable gaming hardware failures of all time (and also produced the stil funny ‘sidetalking’ meme of imitating the N-Gage will all sorts of objects).

Nokia NGage

Just pretend the sidetalking taco phone never happened...

Fortuntely we’ve come a long way since then, with the Sony Xperia Play as the ‘Playstation Phone’ and the success of games including Angry Birds lifting simple mobile games. At the same time, most big games publishers, such as Activision and EA, are already publishing their games on the bigger mobile OS platforms.

If I was Stephen Elop and wanted to grab an established userbase which has disposable income for both hardware and digital content, and already has a strong word-of-mouth community with an established property, I’d be trying to get in a room with Ballmer and Robert Kotick in days or hours to get a deal done.

Will Microsoft and Xbox rule online identities in the future?

A really interesting Microsoft internal team video has appeared on the web, showing the ambition of the Windows Gaming Experience team for your Xbox avatar to become your identity and persona in the digital world.

It’s really interesting in light of some of my previous thoughts regarding Xbox Live Avatars, when I claimed back in 2008 that introducing avatars was a big mistake. And more rcently on both gamification, virtual worlds, and the idea of any company providing a single digital identity for us.

I’m a big Xbox gamer and fan, and I don’t think that Microsoft would be any worse than trusting a single identity to Facebook or Google. I also don’t think they’d be any better, despite the fact that avatars are slowly becoming better implemented and utilised in ways that are actually interesting and useful. My thoughts are probably summed up by the fact every article I see on single identities is tagged in Google Reader with ‘oneidisaf*****gstupididea’ – I’ll let you fill in the blanks. But so much of the momentum for a single ID seems to come from educated white male digital professionals who are comfortable with teir online personas and indeed often build businesse around them.

People are human, fallible, and occasionally secretive for good reasons as well as bad ones. Or will Microsoft introduce a ‘private browser’ setting that puts your avatar in a hat, shades and a long coat if you want to isit somewhere digitally that might be adults only, for example?

There is one other possibility which I’m starting to think about – the sanitised proprietary web experience of being locked into Microsoft or Facebook worlds with an ID which is tied to you for life, and a seedy underworld open web, where you can be who you want, do what you want (within reason), and actually learn, grow and evolve by mistakes as well as successes. I know which one immediately seems more fun and interesting to me.

Is Xbox Live better than golf for digital business networking?

I’ve never managed to get into golf as a sport, but I’ve often been made aware of it as a useful social gathering for business people to get together. Was I missing out due to my lack of interest, ability and plaid sportswear?

My Lucky Golf Outfit by Jeff The Trojan on Flickr

My Lucky Golf Outfit‘ by Jeff the Trojan on Flickr (CC Licence)

Well, if golf was the social context for business networking in the past, I’m rapidly realising that Xbox Live appears to have replaced it. Obviously my network is self-selecting to an extent, but a quick scan of my friends includes:

  • a couple of founders of significant start-ups (i.e. companies you’ll definitely know).
  • a fair number of journalists, including a couple of editors.
  • 5-10 fairly prominent digital marketers.
  • a handful of tech experts in specialist areas.

Theoretically it’s possible I could keep up with all of these friends in the pub, although it’d take a mighty amount of diary juggling and even then, some of them are rarely in the same city with enough free time.

But it’s easy for me to meet up with them online and spend some time gaming (and occasionally chatting about general tech stuff in between). And without wishing to provoke the wrath of Sony/Nintendo fans, the fact that Xbox Live has long been the most seemless and best integrated online networked console experience, means it’s a pretty good time all round…

It interesting how this facet of being social has become integrated into the digital world automatically and subsconsciously alongside keeping in touch with family, friends, colleagues and the looser circle of connections around them both on a personal level, and sharing links, information etc…

And even if the game of choice is pretty much always Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Xbox 360), I could probably even be tempted into a spot of Tiger Woods PGA Tour 11 (Xbox 360).

Has Microsoft made a major marketing mistake?

I downloaded the new Xbox Live Experience and Dashboard for my Xbox 360 last night, and while the functionality is taking a little bit of time to adjust to, I’ve already decided I don’t like a major part of the strategy. And more importantly, it may be a big mistake for Microsoft.
Badgergravling on new Xbox Live

Everyone in the world knows the success that Nintendo has had with the Wii – which ignored the graphical arms race to focus on party games and family friendliness, plus little WiiMii avatars etc.

But I didn’t buy an Xbox 360 for those reasons. I bought it because I loved the Xbox Live functionality, enjoyed fairly mature games, and saw the potential for digital music and film distribution.

I liked the fact the Xbox was seen as slightly more hardcore than the family Wii or the trendy PS3. I liked the fact it was more of an unusual choice, and that in my opinion it looked quite stylish. I like the fact the dashboard system was quite simple and functional.

But with the new dashboard update, Microsoft has essentially forced me to turn my Xbox 360 into a less fun Wii.

And suddently the Xbox looks more like a copycat than a leader. That’s the marketing mistake.

The two incarnations of the Xbox did something different to the rest of the market by concentrating on online gameplay, and becoming the first console to make good use of broadband. That was the Purple Cow. It’s what built a following for both Xbox and Halo.

It’s what made me tell friends and colleagues why they should get an Xbox and meet up online. Why I talked about how Microsoft were being brave enough to blaze the trail for online gaming. And why people talked about Sony killing their brand. There was talk about convergence, and owning the living room. And as someone who grew up with videogames and has now reached middleage, it was a sign that the average adult could engage with gaming on their own contemporary level, rather than as a childish indulgence.

All that’s now gone.

Not because now I’m forced to represent myself as a cute little fella in a suit and comedy hat.

But because I’m forced to admit MS has copied the success of Nintendo in the cute market, and forced consumers who paid for a different brand and image to copy as well. It’s no longer a hardcore choice, or a Purple Cow. When two competitors start chasing the same ideas, and Nintendo already has the lead and a price advantage, it’s a battle the Microsoft brand can’t win.

Have you upgraded to the new Xbox Live experience, and do you agree or disagree? More importantly, how do you feel about the avatars, and the fact it brands Microsoft as copycats, not tech innovators – and could a brand with the legacy of Microsoft ever compete on that level against Nintendo?

Note: edited a reference to prices, as I incorrectly priced the 360 as more expensive than the Wii.