When everyone is virtual, it will be in Grand Theft Auto – not Second Life

Second Life Avatar by tifotter

Having played quite a few hours of Grand Theft Auto IV, the latest game in the series, I’ve become convinced that future evolutions of the game are far more likely to bring virtual worlds to the masses than Second Life ever will.

I’ve experienced the whole GTA series, including the original 2D games for the Playstation, the original switch to 3D, and the gradual expansion of the gaming universe and variety of missions, side missions, and alternative exploits (Why is it the press always focuses on the hookers, rather than the fact you can play darts, pool, or go bowling?). And now there’s a range of really enjoyable multi-player missions.

It’s a consistent world, with rules loosely based on those of reality – but bent for more fun. All it takes is a mechanism for an ongoing economy, and suddenly it’s a virtual world.

Second Life, by contrast, has the barrier of requiring a reasonable PC, a sign-up procedure, and learning how the world works…as opposed to ‘insert cd and play’.

This might be a risky prediction, but some figures do back it up. March 2008 saw 13 million Second Life accounts registered with no idea of how many were active.

By contrast, GTA IV sold 3.6 million copies on the first day of release, and 6 million in the first week. The previous instalment, GTA:San Andreas hit 21.5 million units in total. (Figures from wikipedia.org)

And with copies of the game costing around £40, people are definitely going to play it until they get their money’s worth. It already became the most played game on Xbox Live for the week of it’s release.

It’s got the fans, the brand reputation, and mainstream appeal on consoles which offer easy online access alongside home entertainment. And I know I’m not the only person who bought his copy on the day of release – and without reading a single review.

If GTA hasn’t become a persistent virtual world within the next couple of years, I’ll eat my copy of GTA IV!

The most powerful networks…

It’s easy to debate who are the biggest players in social networking, whether you’re a Myspace fan, Facebook obsessive, or quoting the Latin, Asian, Indian or Brazilian audience of Hi5 or Orkut. (Incidentally, I signed up for Orkut today, completing my membership of the big four and I have to say, it feels a bit unfinished…seems like it’s all back end, no front end.)

But there’s one social network which could be more influential, if not pervasive. There are times when I take it for granted, but Xbox Live is truly one of the great networks of our time.

With the box next to my TV, I can play games on and offline, and watch DVDs. I can also download demos of games, new content for existing games, and complete smaller arcade games, including the likes of Sonic The Hedgehog and old arcade games.

When payment is required, it’s a one button confirmation, billed to my credit card with pre-paid points.

And the same points can be used to purchase downloadable videos etc, with pay-per-view films coming to the UK soon.

If I’m playing a different game to my friends, one button brings up a list to message them, or invite them into private voice chat, whilst I can continue to play. And I can compare the achievements of all my games, to those of my friends

And I can listen to custom soundtracks from CD’s, or my portable hard drive, at the same time as doing all of this.

15 years ago (Making me feel old), this would have seemed about as likely as jetcars, as I carried my 486 to someone’s house for a LAN party using ethernet cards, lots of shouting, and eventually some four player Doom.

And how many hours have I put in? I know there are at least two games which have claimed my time of at least 50 days each…And another 15 or so games on my played list.

I know the service is a walled garden, with a small window looking out at Windows Live Messenger, and a skylight from which a feed can escape to sites displaying gamertags, and even blogs written by Xbox 360s. But, like Facebook, it’s so comfortable, that trying to escape is like trying to rouse yourself from a comfy armchair after a Sunday roast dinner.

Social networking: A source of depression?

Something that has always angered me about ‘old’ attitudes to the internet, and online socialising, is the view that anyone indulging in such a pastime is a sad loser, who obviously doesn’t have any real friends.

I’ve made some good friends by chatting and hanging out online, and some of these connections have grown into ‘real life’ friendships. I’ve also managed to rekindle friendships with people I haven’t seen in months or years, and add depth to people that I may have only spoken briefly with.

But is there a danger that social networks can become depressing?

I’ve started reading up on social sites and depression, and there are several schools of thought that look to online social support networks as ways to alleviate depression.

For instance, this blog, by Douglas Karr, points out the benefits of online communication (Even if he does slip into a stereotypical dig at the video game loner at the end – obviously not a fan of Xbox Live).

But at the same time, do social networks not still reward those who shout the loudest, just as in real life? They promote the appearance of knowledge, and the repetition of the thoughts of others, without promoting original comments and ideas. Forum posts can develop into debate, but how much of your social networking profiles is about forming and joining groups, just to say you’re a member?

And once the initial buzz of adding everyone you’ve got in your contacts list has subsided, and you experience a lull in the social action, will this not reinforce any ideas of isolation? Leading to users frantically refreshing the page in the hope a new friend will have added them, or a new post will have appeared?

I’m a member of numerous forums, social networking sites and an avid Xbox Live gamer. And yet last night when I logged on, most people were either offline, or busy doing something else. Luckily I quite fancied some single player action for a change, but that occurred with an online network in the 100s, and probably closer to the 1000s. If you’re prone to feeling rejection, and have a smaller network, it could be a fairly common occurence…

I’m not sure what the answer is. Any automated solution would be uncovered quickly, and no-one keeps Tom at the top of their Myspace friends for long. But at a time when people can be putting in an enormous effort to update their Facebook, Myspace and Twitter accounts, whilst checking out their favourite forums, it’s going to feel disapointing if they aren’t rewarded with interaction, even for one evening.

Not the most cheery post for a social networking fan, but one that is worth thinking about. Disapointment is the biggest enemy of converting new users to a website or community, and if you can tackle it head on, then you’ve got a good start in building decent, organic growth for your project.

An update and a request

Every so often, there are games which completely justify online gaming and investment Microsoft has made in Xbox Live. Forza Motorsport 2 is one of those games!

I was surprised by the loss of car clubs, which allowed players to group together in clans, particularly at a time when community is so valued by everyone, but the photo mode, ability to upload you pictures online straight from your console, the new paint editor which can create simply unbelievable designs, and the online racing itself more than makes up for it…

Once I’ve torn myself away though, I’ve got things to do… I’m experimenting with building some sites in DotNetNuke, and I’m also intending to read up on SEO. So if you can recommend SEO blogs and books to take me from interested novice to white and black hat expert, let me know…